TNX main long term daily trend is currently bullish. Sub Trend- thick blue line is bearish, but currently has reversed after touch main trend- dotted blue line. This is a strong indication that TNX will at least test 41, if not higher. That is a surely bull news till TNX finishes it's correction to 41.
So, what about JPY? In this chart of USD/JPY below we are seeing that it wants to break current level upward, but it's not have been able to so far. Since, we can't tell for sure right now that USD/JPY will break upward or not even though SPX & TNX are bullish, let's bring other important thing which has 96% correlation JPY: USD/CHF.This is the chart of USD/CHF. Right now, it's holding very important level on appx 1.0550. You can see long term daily Black trendline as well as key resistance levels. It'll be a major US Dollar bull break through if USDCHF breaks this level upward. So, far there is no way by looking @ US fundamentals that it'll break upward.
In conclusion, I'll say that USDJPY will be side ways despite of rise in TNX & SPX. Sure, there will be small rise on USDJPY, but not a huge break for Carry Trade.